A large part of the work carried out by INCIT-EV partners involves forecasting the evolution of demand for electric vehicles and charging solutions in Europe.
We just published our deliverable 9.2, a report on demand scenarios for the different use cases through PESTEL and estimation of penetration curves. This study was conducted by INCIT-EV partners CIRCE, QI Arrow, the Vedecom Institute and Politecnico di Torino.
The report is based on a bottom-up approach and looks into the factors that impact citizens’ capacity and willingness to swap trade in their current vehicle for an electric one.
It first points out 10 factors that have led to a decrease in European vehicle registrations in recent years, including the global economic crisis, an aging population and the rise of car-sharing and micro-mobility options, zero emissions areas, hybrid offices, among others.
Then, the report identifies 25 factors that will impact the speed of EVs adoption. These factors are classified under the PESTEL theory, meaning that they are either political, economic, social, technical, environmental and legal factors.
It appears that the most influential factors are the economic ones, and more specifically the average purchasing power within the country. As a result, the adoption of electric vehicles will not be uniform. There will be at least three paces of adoption reflecting disparities in purchasing power in Europe. The report includes the expected penetration curves for each of the European cities currently hosting an INCIT-EV demonstrator : Amsterdam and Utrecht, Paris, Turin, Tallinn and Zaragoza.
